Investigating the Causal Path from Issue Incongruence to Democratic Dissatisfaction

Contemporary politics is characterized by a perceived deficit in political representation and dissatisfaction among citizen: Dissatisfaction with government policy, the government in general, and their democratic system. So far, many researchers have demonstrated relationships between these political attitudes separately. In particular, a large part of this strand of research examines predictors of satisfaction with democracy. We advance this existing research by outlining and testing a causal path between perceived deficit in political representation and democratic dissatisfaction. Specifically, we examine this causal path using the example of climate change. We argue that this causal path includes different degrees of political support. Originally, Easton developed a dichotomous typology of specific and diffuse political support. WE follow Norris' and Dalton's extension of his seminal work and consider political support as a continuous concept. Panel data from the German Longitudinal Elections Study allows us to trace various measures of citizens' political support across multiple survey waves between 2017 and 2023. Our measurements range from quite specific political support manifesting itself in perceived issue (in-)congruence, and thus in perceived political representation, to more diffuse support reflected in satisfaction with democracy and support for democratic principles. First, citizen's climate change issue congruence with the government is expected to influence their evaluation of the government's climate policy. Second, this evaluation should influence citizens' overall satisfaction with the government. However, we expect that this effect is moderated by the salience of climate change among citizens. Third, we expect that general government satisfaction shapes citizens' satisfaction with democracy. Again, we believe that this effect is moderated by citizens' representation in the political system. Finally, satisfaction with democracy should influence citizens support for democracy and democratic principles. We test our theoretical expectations using advanced statistical modeling such as random-effects-within-between models and multi-level structural equation models. This article makes two key contributions. On the one hand, we first establish a causal path from citizens' perceived deficit in political representation to generalized support for democracy. On the other hand, we shed light on the potential of climate change to affect political attitudes and values if not appropriately addressed by governments.