Past winds of change: a historical analysis of directional branching points in post-war agricultural policy in The Netherlands and Norway (1945-2020)

Transformations towards sustainable agri-food systems in Western democratic welfare states are both urgent and necessary, as the agri-food sector contributes to relevant contemporary sustainability challenges such as climate change, biodiversity loss, and pollution (Crippa et al., 2021; Rockström et al., 2020). Numerous policies (e.g., the Farm to Fork Strategy) therefore seek to radically transform the way we produce and consume our food. However, these policies face significant political conflict in the agri-food domain, with large-scale farmer protests in the Netherlands and recently Germany. While the need for transformative change towards sustainable food systems is thus clear, agricultural policies have strong legacies, rendering dominant policy discourses, instruments, institutions, and actor interests highly resistant to change (Leeuwis et al., 2021). Moreover, the direction of change remains uncertain and contested, because of the plurality of perspectives on sustainable agriculture, and concern for who would benefit and lose as a consequence of change (Hebinck et al., 2021; Klerkx & Begemann, 2020). This paper aims to enhance understanding of directional change (i.e. processes of directionality) in societal transformations and policy reform dynamics in the post-war history of agricultural policy in Norway and the Netherlands (1945-2020), through analyzing relevant ‘branching points’. Building on historical institutionalism, branching points represent moments of openness and contestation, where choices can be made within or between directions of development (Foxon et al., 2013; Rosenbloom et al., 2018). The paper offers relevant insights from the past for ongoing and future agri-food sustainability transformations and policy in Norway and the Netherlands. The Dutch and Norwegian agri-food policy histories provide relevant comparative cases for the aim of this study, as both countries took diverging directions related to the in- or extensive nature of agricultural production and export-orientation. Nevertheless, both countries offer comparable institutional contexts when it comes to their post-war histories, political systems, and policy goals towards sustainable agriculture. Considering the countries’ specific contexts, we analyze how actors have influenced political debate over choices between future directions, offering insights on ways through which this resulted in change or continuity in institutions, policies, technologies, and practices. The study comprises a two-step historical analysis of agricultural policy. First, relevant past branching points in both countries are identified and compared, offering lessons for current and future windows of change. Secondly, for each branching point identified, primary sources such as policy documents (e.g., the Mansholt plan), parliamentary debate records (e.g. from Overheid.nl, n.d.), and/or media accounts (e.g. from Delpher, n.d.) are analyzed to deepen the understanding of why and how a directional change was made. First results indicate a common branching point in both countries related to a political struggle between smaller, multifunctionalist, and larger, specialized farming practices in the 1970s. In Norway a multifunctionalist direction was enabled by political influence of the Smallholders Union, while in the Netherlands, multifunctionalist farming was strategically phased-out through various policies. Later periods with relevant branching points to be analyzed include the period of internationalization and neoliberalization in the 1990s and policy reform and contestation around sustainable agriculture (2000-2020).