Strategy or Improvisation? Uncovering the Determinants of Hydrogen Trade Partner Selection in Germany, the Netherlands, and Belgium

Clean hydrogen is envisaged to play a crucial role in the industrial decarbonization strategies of Germany, the Netherlands and Belgium. However, the limited availability of renewable energy capacity within these countries has propelled them to prioritize the imports of clean hydrogen or its derivatives. This has led to the establishment of numerous bilateral agreements between prospective importers and exporters. Despite the shared objective of importing clean hydrogen, a notable heterogeneity emerges in the choices of export partners among Belgium, the Netherlands, and Germany. This study aims to investigate the determinants and actors influencing the selection of future hydrogen trade partners in the aforementioned Northwest European countries. Specifically, we employ Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA) to discern the underlying determinants or guiding principles that drive choices regarding hydrogen trade partners and explore how these factors vary across countries. In doing so, we look at a broad set of determinants such as geographic proximity, existing trade relations, current energy flows, commercial interest or colonial legacies. The insights derived from this research are anticipated to yield valuable insights in how national industrial decarbonization strategies are taking shape, and to delineate the evolving landscape of nascent hydrogen interdependencies and associated risks.