Can Attacks on The Democratic Process Be Exported? A Copycat Effect Investigation Through Visual and Quantitative Analysis

This study employs mixed methods to investigate whether the highly reproduced images of the January 2021 insurrection provided inspiration for the January 2023 insurrection in Brazil through the lens of the copycat effect, also referred to as media contagion effect (Gould et al. 2003; Pescara-Kovach & Raleigh, 2017). The events of January 6, 2021, at the U.S. Capitol, and January 8, 2023, at the Three Powers Complex in Brazil, involved the infiltration of government buildings by mobs of supporters of the outgoing rightwing president. These incidents were characterized by attempts to subvert the democratic process and hinder the peaceful transfer of power (Deliso, 2023). The copycat effect has been studied in the context of individual actions, including suicide (e.g., Kim et al., 2013) in the context of the so-called "Werther effect" (Scherr & Reinemann, 2011), terrorist suicide attacks (e.g., Farnham & Liem, 2017), mass shootings (e.g., Pescara-Kovach & Raleigh, 2017), and intimate partner violence (e.g., Torrecilla et al, 2019). In criminal contexts, a significant portion of offenders report being influenced by media or popular culture in their criminal activities (Surette, 2013a; Surette, 2013b), indicating that copycat crime is a relatively common aspect of criminal behavior (Helfgott, 2015). The copycat effect tends to occur within days (Torrecilla et al, 2019), weeks (Suh et al., 2015), or up to a year (Laukkala et al., 2019) following exposure to the content that triggered the effect. However, in the context of the two attacks, the time-lapse was almost two years – a difference that indicates another potential for contribution to the scholarly literature. To understand how Brazilians regarded the attack in Brasilia, I ask: To what degree, if any, do Brazilian citizens perceive the events of January 8, 2023, as a copycat effect, influenced by the January 6, 2021, U.S. Capitol attack? Visual frames are essential components of human perception and cognition, influencing how individuals interpret and make sense of the world around them (Rodriguez & Dimitrova, 2011). Given the likely role of visual frames in triggering a copycat effect, I ask: What are the primary visual frames in the news coverage of (a) the attack at the U.S. Capitol on January 6, 2021, and (b) the attack at government buildings in Brasilia on January 8, 2023? Methodologically, The first part of the study is an analysis of visual frames present in both insurrections. Ten primary visual frames emerged. The second part of the study employs a survey to understand how Brazilians’ exposure to the U.S. Capitol invasion images. IRB has been submitted and approved. The pilot test (n = 52) results indicated the presence of copycat effect despite some important differences in the prevalent visual frames in images of the insurrections in Brazil and the U.S. The survey is running and the results will be updated by April 1st.