Lessons from failed transitions: Desertec and Green Hydrogen

The literature on energy transitions tends to focus on successes rather than setbacks and failures. However, failures can offer important lessons for present and future challenges. This paper compares the Desertec project, in which Germany aimed to import solar power from North Africa, with Germany’s current green hydrogen import ambitions, sourced from the same region. Drawing from the multi-level perspective approach, we outline the key conditions that are needed to establish green energy trade between Northern Africa and Europe: a supportive political economy in both regions, infrastructure, technical and institutional complexity, and energy demand. Using a combination of document analysis and in-depth interviews, we find that the failure of Desertec was largely due to landscape factors, including within-EU politics such as opposition from prominent member states and reluctance to invest in cross-border infrastructure, concerns about political instability following the Arab Spring, and institutional hurdles combined with immature technology deployment. The analysis of German green hydrogen ambitions reveals that infrastructural and technological barriers will pose even greater difficulties than for Desertec, requiring greater within EU cooperation, but it may also encounter a more developed institutional setting. We find parallels between Desertec and the German hydrogen import strategy in their lack of attention to political challenges within the EU and Northern Africa. Our findings highlight the continued belief from policy actors in techno-fixes and a lacking understanding of the political nature of energy imports, even following the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The findings also emphasize the need for further research on failures in transitions for scholars working on energy and sustainability.