The Repercussions of the Eurozone Crisis Management on Institutional Trust and Electoral Participation in Greece

The July 2015 bail-out referendum marked the apex of the Greek crisis and constituted a pivotal moment in the overall trajectory of the Eurozone crisis management. The effective annulment of the result under the concerted pressure of EU actors led to the collapse of the so-called anti-memorandum camp and SYRIZA’s rapid ideologico-political transformation. In combination, these developments paved the way for deepening crisis of representation, a decrease in trust on national democratic institutions, and an accelerated decline in electoral participation. From 70,95% in the legislative elections of 2009, the latter went down to 53,74% in the elections of July 2023 and continues to exhibit a downward trend, despite the seeming recovery of the economy. In this context, our aim here is to illuminate the long-term impact of the Eurozone crisis management on people's perception vis-a-vis the legitimacy and function of national democratic institutions and, consequently, b) on their electoral behaviour. In this regard, we pay particular emphasis on the dynamic and key drivers of abstention (e.g. political cynicism, apathy, latent radicalism) in the belief that a thorough analysis of the latter provides valuable insight as to the stability of the Greek political system and its underlying dynamics. It also allows us to draw some preliminary inferences vis-à-vis the ramifications of the EU’s crisis-management on the Union's decision-making processes and its implications for democratic accountability and institutional responsiveness to citizens’ demands. In terms of data, our analysis relies on 95 semi-structured in-depth interviews and 10 focus groups of 7 participants each. Out of the 95 individual interviews 20 are with people that have been interviewed twice: once on the immediate aftermath of the 2015 referendum and again in mid 2023. This allows us to follow the trajectory of certain dynamics over time and evaluate better the long-term impact of key events, such as the 2015 referendum, on people's political behaviour. Survey data by the Eurobarometer and national pollsters (Metron Analysis, Public Issue) are also used in an auxiliary manner and as a mean to highlight broader attitudinal and ideological trends amid the electorate.