Narratives of political elites during the European elections in a polycrisis environment

The upcoming European elections in June will occur amidst a 'polycrisis' (Schmit, 2019; Zeitlin et al., 2019). In recent years, Europe's political and media institutions have encountered numerous unresolved challenges, including economic, migration, climate, and health issues. Additionally, for the past two years, a war has been waged on the borders of the European Union, further impacting EU citizens. The given context discusses the challenges of observing how political and media elites in Europe take positions through 'top to bottom' strategies (Rebolledo et al., 2019; Zeitlin & Nicoli, 2021). In the last legislature, several rules and regulations at both EU and national levels have attempted to address some of these 'polycrisis' issues. Two examples of these efforts are the Iberian exception and the recent migration pact reached during the Spanish presidency of the Council of the European Union. The complexity of this context is compounded by actors who seek to influence the electorate through disinformation strategies that affect the public space. The consequences of these strategies are diverse. Zeitlin et al. (2019) argue that the diversity of issues creates a 'polycleavage', while Rebolledo et al. (2019) suggest that national political elites connect European issues with national ones to advance their own national agenda. The number and importance of issues discussed in European elections affect the ideological orientation of voters, who must adjust to a varied and ever-changing political landscape (Schramm, 2020). The strategies implemented by political elites, from top to bottom, also contribute to the politicization of many of the issues related to multiple crises (Schramm, 2020; Wilde et al., 2016). This gives these issues relevance among the electorate, which polarizes their positions and mobilizes them. The upcoming June 9, 2024 European elections in Spain are expected to hold significant importance at both the national and European levels. These elections will serve as a 'second round' for the majority party in the Spanish parliament. Additionally, the reliance on pro-independence parties for governability resulting from agreements made by a minority Prime Minister is a notable factor. This minority advocating for independence has influenced the start of the Spanish legislature in January 2024 and has promoted the pro-independence agenda within European institutions. Based on the consulted literature and the political significance of the 'polycrisis' issues, we propose the following hypotheses: H1. Spanish political leaders will connect European 'polycrisis' issues to the Spanish situation through national narratives. H2. In order to influence the positions of the parties, some actors may resort to disinformation strategies. The methodology to test these hypotheses will be mixed. The analysis of national narratives will be based on a discourse analysis of the parties' proposals, as outlined in their electoral programs and leaders' messages, as well as on opinion polls conducted by the Centro de Investigaciones Sociológicas (CIS) prior to the European elections. On the other hand, we will base the investigation of disinformation strategies on the publications collected by IBERIFIER, as well as by national verifiers such as Maldita.es, EFE Verifica or Newtral, among others.