Unaffected Polarization? Populism and Affective Polarization in Comparative Perspective

With both affective polarization and populism on the rise in several countries, many have proposed a link between the two phenomena. Yet, research offers little direct evidence on whether populist individuals are more polarized. This paper aims to fill this gap by using CSES data from 25 elections in 21 countries to provide a comparative account of the relationship between populism and affective polarization at the individual level. We show that neither populist attitudes nor populist voting are not generally related to higher levels of affective polarization. Instead, we identify a curvilinear relationship wherein both populists and anti-populists exhibit high levels of polarization, with substantial variations across countries. These findings challenge the prevailing assumption that populism is universally associated with heightened affective polarization, suggesting that it may not be the sole responsible behind the upsurge in affective polarization observed in some Western democracies.