The Shifting 2024 U.S. Presidential Election Landscape: Demographics are Not Destiny

Rapid demographic change in the U.S. has significant political implications. The U.S. Census Bureau estimates that the country will be majority-minority by the 2040s. Some demographers estimate even sooner. Driving population change primarily are high fertility among Latinos; Asian immigration; a declining White population. The latest decade of Census population (2010-2020) Census, Latino population growth was 20%; Asian 29%; Black 8.5%; Mixed-race 30%; and White declined by 1%. The Democratic Party is anchored by a coalition of minorities, while the Republican Party commands the majority White vote in national elections. Population change suggests to many an inevitable shifting in the two-party competition to favor the Democrats in the future. Data from 2024 presidential election polling suggests a much more complicated story: there are cracks in the minority voting foundation of the Democratic Party, with GOP candidate Donald Trump gaining ground significantly with Latinos, Black men, and Asians. They key to his victory in November will be his ability to hold down typical GOP losses among these minority voters. Conversely, President Joe Biden is faring better than typical for Democratic presidential candidates among older White voters, a core GOP voting block for years. The analysis presented suggests that there is increased fluidity in U.S. voting patterns, suggesting great difficulty in trying to discern future party competition based on demographic change. Voting patterns among racial/ethnic groups are proving to be not at all stagnant or predictable. What is certain is that future party competition in the U.S. increasingly will be a contest for minority votes.