External Influence on Democratic Backsliding and Autocratization in Post-Soviet Eurasia: How Do Regional Organizations Matter?
China
Comparative Politics
Democratisation
Institutions
International Relations
Regionalism
Comparative Perspective
Political Regime
Abstract
Since 1991, the 12 post-Soviet states (PSSs) have embarked on different paths of political regime transition: autocratization (e.g., Russia, Belarus, Central Asian states) and democratization (e.g., Georgia, Ukraine, Moldova). Yet, none of these PSSs can be defined as a consolidated democracy. Moreover, since the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, these states have witnessed radical autocratization (e.g., in Russia, and Belarus) or democratic backsliding (e.g., Georgia). My project aims to investigate the causal mechanisms of this phenomenon from 2005 to 2025. The project seeks to analyze and untangle the hidden mechanisms used by Putin's regime within and outside of Russia, targeting neighboring states. The establishment of ROs stands out as the most sophisticated mechanism for economic, political, and socio-cultural manipulation of political leaders, institutions, and public opinion used by both Russia and China in post-Soviet Eurasia. The main question of this project is the following: How Russia and China have used regional organizations (e.g., the CIS, CSTO, EAEU, EDB, SCO, B&RI) in the autocratization of Eurasia? How have falsification of electoral results, manipulation of mass and social media, economic leverages (e.g., trade in oil and gas) been used by these ROs? The project will be based on a mixed-method approach, building on existing statistical analysis, and advancing discourse analysis.