The Unintended Consequences of Opposition Strategies: Affective Polarisation and Institutional Fragmentation in Post-Gaddafi Libya

One of the key explanations for many transitions from authoritarianism is the role of political elites. While extensive literature covers the importance of governing political elites in the process, we know very little about the role of opposition forces especially in conflict zones within the Global South. Our paper seeks to address this research gap and analyses the effects of political opposition elites on the transition process in Libya. More precisely, it examines the opposition strategies directed against the Islamic majority within the General National Congress (GNC), the country’s first elected parliament after Gaddafi's fall in 2011. It draws on primary data from semi-structured interviews conducted in 2023 with former GNC members, politicians and NGO activists. The findings illustrate how the opposition strategies, though aimed at countering Islamic influence, produced unexpected and unintended consequences in the forms of affective polarisation in society and institutional fragmentation, ultimately creating conditions conducive to autocratisation. On the one hand, the opposition leveraged security concerns to demonise Islamist GNC members framing them as sponsors of militant groups. Through parliamentary debate and media campaigns, opposition MPs framed GNC's security policies as threats to national security, mobilising non-Islamist groups into confrontational stances that culminated in armed clashes in 2014, which intensified the affective polarization in society. On the other hand, the opposition groups obstructed the constitutional process claiming that the Islamist-led GNC would produce an illiberal constitution. This obstructionism contributed to institutional paralysis and heightened political divisions.