Opposition Strategies, Affective Polarisation and Autocratisation: Origins and Effects

There is a vibrant debate on the causes and dynamics of autocratisation (Bermeo 2016; Levitsky and Ziblatt 2018; Lührmann and Lindberg 2019; Riedl et al. 2024). Research has also documented the global rise of affective polarisation(Reiljan et al. 2024; Wagner 2021; Harteveld et al. 2023) – itself one of the drivers of autocratisation (McCoy and Somer 2019). In parallel, there is an infant line of research examining how opposition groups respond to autocratisation (Gamboa 2022; Cleary and Öztürk 2022; Tomini et al. 2023), and how opposition strategies could contribute to affective polarisation (Somer et al. 2021). However, this literature is characterised by a number of notable gaps: • Opposition strategies and actors: Most studies examining opposition strategies are based on single case studies or small-N comparisons (Farag et al. 2024). We, thus, know little about the whole menu of strategies employed to resist autocratisation and the multiplicity of opposition actors (domestic and international) involved. • Effects of strategies: Current research distinguishes between moderate and radical opposition strategies, but little is known about their effects on affective polarisation and autocratisation. The workshop aims to test the effects of radical verus moderate strategies in different contexts using a variety of cases at different stages of autocratisation. • Determinants of strategies: Opposition strategies do not take place in a vacuum. Does affective polarisation limit or facilitate cross-ideological mobilisation and complicate alliance formation? • Re-democratization: Little is known about what happens once autocratisation is aborted. Do opposition strategies employed during autocratisation affect the prospects and dynamics of re-democratisation?

Bermeo, Nancy (2016): On Democratic Backsliding. In Journal of Democracy 27 (1), pp. 5–19. DOI: 10.1353/jod.2016.0012. Cleary, Matthew R.; Öztürk, Aykut (2022): When Does Backsliding Lead to Breakdown? Uncertainty and Opposition Strategies in Democracies at Risk. In Perspect. polit. 20 (1), pp. 205–221. DOI: 10.1017/S1537592720003667. Farag, Mahmoud; Perkola, Bonald; Sharaky, Samar (2024): Opposition Strategies amid Backsliding: A Systematic Review. Paper presented at the 2024 annual conference of the US Midwest Political Science Association (4-7 April 2024). Gamboa, Laura (2022): Resisting Backsliding. Opposition Strategies against the Erosion of Democracy. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Harteveld, Eelco; Russo, Luana; Wagner, Markus (2023): Introduction: Affective polarization in multiparty systems: Conceptualization, causes and consequences. In Electoral Studies 86. DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2023.102691. Levitsky, Steven; Ziblatt, Daniel (2018): How democracies die. New York: Crown. Lührmann, Anna; Lindberg, Staffan I. (2019): A third wave of autocratization is here: what is new about it? In Democratization 26 (7), pp. 1095–1113. DOI: 10.1080/13510347.2019.1582029. McCoy, Jennifer; Somer, Murat (2019): Toward a Theory of Pernicious Polarization and How It Harms Democracies: Comparative Evidence and Possible Remedies. In Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science 681 (1), pp. 234–271. DOI: 10.1177/0002716218818782. Reiljan, Andres; Garzia, Diego; Da Ferreira Silva, Frederico; Trechsel, Alexander H. (2024): Patterns of Affective Polarization toward Parties and Leaders across the Democratic World. In Am Polit Sci Rev 118 (2), pp. 654–670. DOI: 10.1017/S0003055423000485. Riedl, Rachel Beatty; Friesen, Paul; McCoy, Jennifer; Roberts, Kenneth (2024): Democratic Backsliding, Resilience, and Resistance. In wp. DOI: 10.1353/wp.0.a917802. Somer, Murat; McCoy, Jennifer; Luke, Russell E. (2021): Pernicious polarization, autocratization and opposition strategies. In Democratization 28 (5), pp. 929–948. DOI: 10.1080/13510347.2020.1865316. Tomini, Luca; Gibril, Suzan; Bochev, Venelin (2023): Standing up against autocratization across political regimes: a comparative analysis of resistance actors and strategies. In Democratization 30 (1), pp. 119–138. DOI: 10.1080/13510347.2022.2115480. Wagner, Markus (2021): Affective polarization in multiparty systems. In Electoral Studies 69, p. 102199. DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2020.102199.

1: Which opposition strategies are more likely to succeed in aborting or slowing down autocratisation?
2: To what extent do (certain) opposition strategies employed amid autocratisation contribute to polarisation?
3: Does affective polarisation shape the elite’s choices of opposition strategies?
4: What are the main determinants that shape the choice of opposition strategies?
5: What are the effects of opposition strategies on re-democratisation once autocratisation is aborted?

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