Civil society opposing populists in power: the effectiveness of initiatives against PiS government in Poland

The Law and Justice government in Poland showed that when populists are in the majority, they can transform liberal democracy towards authoritarianism. In the face of a growing threat, 'democratic' public actors may resort to various forms of opposition to autocratisation. Data on initiatives opposing the Law and Justice government between 2015 and 2020 show that the most active actor was civil society, closely followed by public authorities. However, researchers rarely ask about the effectiveness of civil society opposition to populists in power. The aim of this paper is to find out whether and how civil society initiatives may constrain the policies or actions of populist government. What other (perverse) effects does civil society opposition bring about in illiberal democracies? Yet the literature indicates that opposition of civil society actors may curb policies of governing parties if they can find influential allies such as public opinion, media or courts and/or can leverage concessions through disruption. It may be even more problematic for civil society to constrain anti-democratic policies in illiberal democracies, as civil society operates in unfavorable environment where populists usually do not consider them equal citizens (Olsen 2023). The analysis uses Bourn's (2023) theoretical framework of the effectiveness of reactions to populist parties. The effectiveness will be evaluated according to a 'goal attainment model'. It looks at intended objectives of civil society actors, and examines whether these have been met in practice (to what degree), allowing the possibility that they may be counterproductive or lead to unintended effects. The analysis is based on acts of protest (gatherings, occupying places) opposing PiS restrictions of the constitutional right to freedom of assembly and the 'reforms' of judiciary in Poland. The research is based on the content analysis of press releases, web pages, court rulings and semi-structured interviews with civil organizations, judiciary, and law experts. Process tracing method has ben applied. The study has an exploratory character. First results show that civil society acts proved effective to some extent. They did not change the populist policy, however, they indirectly contributed to immunizing democracy and slowing down autocratisation in Poland. Courts turned out to be the closest allies of civil society. They developed pro-constitutional jurisprudence in criminal law protecting civil rights and freedoms, which neutralized the impact of illiberal laws and repressive actions by the executive. Courts also prevented the chilling effect of the government's 'repressive legalism' on social opposition. However, there was also a perverse effect, as the populists repressed engaged judges and did not stop their 'repressive legalism'. The proposed paper is a work in progress, and it will further evaluate effectiveness across cases.