Tough lessons: tracing opposition learning in Morocco and Tunisia since 2011

This paper examines how opposition actors navigate authoritarian resilience by focusing on the interplay between opposition dynamics and the transformation of authoritarian regimes in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). As authoritarian learning mechanisms have enabled these regimes to develop new strategies for their consolidation, opposition actors have also demonstrated their capacity to refine their strategies and practices to effectively express dissent while adapting to the structural changes brought about by the persistence of authoritarianism. To this end, we introduce the concept of opposition learning, defined as the processes through which opposition actors adapt their claims, loci, structures, and networks for expressing disagreement, shaped by the context, their experiences, and their ability to respond to authoritarian policies and practices. This theoretical contribution draws on the evolution of opposition since the 2011 Arab uprisings in two case studies—Morocco and Tunisia. It explores how different opposition actors have adapted to the distinct trajectories of authoritarian regime transformation in these two countries. On one hand, Morocco successfully navigated the 2011 popular demonstrations and has remained a firmly closed authoritarian state. On the other, Tunisia embarked on a democratisation process that stopped abruptly with the election of President Kaïs Saied in 2019, marking the beginning of a significant backslide into authoritarianism. Our analysis highlights the interplay between political structures and the experiences of opposition actors. It underscores the continuous negotiations over issues, practices, and loci, which allow various actors to reassess and refine their strategies for expressing dissent towards authoritarian regimes.