Opposing autocratization across regimes

This paper introduces a novel approach for comparing opposition to incumbent-led autocratization across different regime types by adopting contentious episodes analysis (Bojar et al. 2021). By focusing on the interactions between government authorities and challengers surrounding specific policy proposals that weaken democratic institutions, the method examines the composition of the opposition, the strategies adopted by opposition groups, and the outcomes of these interactions. In analyzing these ‘contentious episodes of autocratization’, the paper sheds light on the factors influencing opposition strategies and their effectiveness in slowing or halting autocratization. Central to this analysis is the role of polarization, which both shapes opposition coalitions and may emerge as a potential outcome of opposition strategies. The paper diverges from traditional studies of autocratization, which often focus solely on cases of democratic breakdown (Ginsburg and Huq 2018). Instead, it compares opposition to autocratic policy proposals across countries with varying levels of democracy, thus avoiding common challenges in autocratization research, such as the lack of cross-regime comparison (Tomini, Gibril, and Bochev 2023). By doing so, the study provides a broader and more nuanced understanding of how opposition movements function in different political contexts. The paper presents a conceptual framework for measuring opposition to autocratization across regimes and provides initial findings from several autocratic policy proposals in six countries in Central Eastern Europe and Latin America, chosen for their varying democratic qualities. These case studies illustrate significant differences in opposition coalitions, strategies, and the outcomes of their efforts, which are traced back to each country's historical experiences with democracy and its political opportunity structures. The findings suggest that the success of opposition strategies is closely linked to the specific political environments in which they operate. It also suggests opposition to autocratization is not without costs, highlighting potential short-term and long-term consequences for polarization (McCoy and Somer 2019). The manuscript contributes to the study of autocratization by broadening the scope of analysis to include not just cases of democratic failure, but also the dynamics of opposition to autocratic proposals in diverse political contexts. It highlights the importance of understanding the strategic choices of opposition groups and the broader political conditions that influence their success in challenging autocratization.