Religiosity and Civilizationist Voting in the EU

This study examines the relationship between religiosity and electoral behavior in the European Union, with a specific emphasis on populist radical right (PRR) civilizationist voting. Utilizing data from the European Social Survey (ESS), covering all waves including the most recent one (2019), we analyze the impact of different measures of religiosity—such as frequency of prayer, church attendance, religious self-identification, and denominational affiliation—on voting patterns. Contrary to the cultural backlash thesis, we find no significant effect of religiosity on the likelihood of voting for PRR parties across all measures. This consistency across multiple ESS waves suggests that religion, as an individual value, does not play a major role in driving support for PRR parties regardless of their civilizationist, Islamophobic or ethnic nationalist discourse and agenda. The lack of a detectable relationship highlights the complexity of voter motivations behind PRR support and suggests that neither religiosity nor civilizationism seem to serve as a central mobilizing factor for these movements. In contrast, when expanding the analysis to other party families, we observe a more complex and meaningful relationship between religiosity and voting behavior, reaffirming the validity of the “vaccine effect” thesis (Arzheimer and Carter, 2009). Specifically, we find that higher levels of religiosity are strongly correlated with a greater likelihood of voting for Christian Democratic and conservative parties. Conversely, religiosity is negatively associated with support for left-wing and Green parties, which often advocate for secularism that may not align with religious beliefs and/or civilizationist ideological frame. A notable contribution of this study is our analysis of denominational effects on voting behavior. By disaggregating the data, we assess how specific religious affiliations shape political preferences across different party families. This approach allows us to capture variation in political behavior not only along the secularization divide but also within the confessional divide among different Christian denominations. Additionally, we explore how the influence of religious affiliation on voting patterns varies across countries, emphasizing the context-specific nature of the relationship between religion and politics in Europe. Moreover, we investigate potential mechanisms that may explain our findings, examining factors that could mediate the relationship between religiosity and voting. We specifically test for the roles of civilizationism, traditionalism, institutional trust, Euroscepticism, nativism, Islamophobia, and authoritarianism as explanatory variables. These factors are assessed in the context of their established relevance in explaining PRR support and their potential interactions with religious beliefs. While traditionalism, institutional trust and authoritarian attitudes are often associated with conservative political preferences, our preliminary results suggest that nativism, civilizationism, and Islamophobia may further polarize the religious electorate, reinforcing support for Christian Democratic and conservative parties, while pushing religious voters away from more progressive or left-wing alternatives. By incorporating the latest ESS data, our country-specific analysis underscores the importance of considering both national and religious contexts when studying political behavior in Europe, as the effects of religiosity and the mechanisms, such as civilizationism, driving these outcomes may vary significantly across countries and cultural backgrounds.