Can the EU Promote Democracy Externally While Backsliding Internally? Evidence from the European Neighbourhood, 2000–2020

This study examines the influence of internal democratic backsliding within the European Union (EU) on its effectiveness in promoting democracy in neighboring regions from 2000 to 2020. While international organizations have long supported democratic ideals, recent years have seen increasing challenges to democracy promotion, with EU member states like Hungary and Poland experiencing notable democratic deterioration. This decline raises concerns about the EU’s credibility as a democracy promoter when considering its key democracy promotion mechanism – political conditionality. Political conditionality operates through incentives, with the EU rewarding compliance with democratic standards, and enforcing punishment in cases of non-compliance. However, when democratic principles falter within its own borders, the EU risks signaling inconsistency, potentially weakening the appeal of aligning with its standards among neighboring countries. By utilizing panel data from countries within the EU's broader neighborhood, including those encompassed within in the European Neighborhood Policy (ENP) and the current accession countries, this study tests whether democratic backsliding within the EU diminishes the impact of its democracy promotion tools. The findings contribute to understanding the role of EU credibility in international democracy promotion and the potential impacts of internal democratic erosion on its external influence.