The Promise of a Better Past. Tabloid consumption, authoritarian nostalgia, and voting for the radical-right in Portugal and Spain

The prolonged dictatorial experiences of Portugal and Spain during the 20th century have left behind deep legacies that shape the political arena today. Populist radical right parties, in particular, show ‘elective affinities’ with the authoritarian past and can activate these legacies either explicitly or via dog whistles. Building upon a novel dataset, this paper explores the connection between patterns of media consumption, displaying authoritarian nostalgia, and voting for the populist radical right. The results suggest that there is an empirical association between media diet, authoritarian nostalgia, and voting behavior. Specifically, we link reading tabloids, being nostalgic about the authoritarian past, and voting for Chega and VOX. We further explore this link via a content analysis of newspaper articles published in the period 2012-2022 to explore the levels of authoritarian nostalgia present in the media. Empirically, we offer a novel measurement of authoritarian nostalgia both at the individual level and in the public discourse. Substantively, we propose a plausible interpretation of why some people become more nostalgic about the authoritarian past and choose to vote for the populist radical right. Overall, we build an innovative theory about the link between authoritarian experiences and current electoral dynamics in Portugal and Spain and set basic foundations to think of the association beyond Southern Europe.