Beyond Individual Cognition: How Institutions Shape the Prevalence of Conspiracy Theory Beliefs

This paper explores the structural drivers of conspiracy theory beliefs, focusing on how different political systems shape conspiratorial thinking. Traditional explanations for conspiracy beliefs emphasize individual psychological and social factors; however, recent research hints at more structural antecedents, including key political institutions. In particular, authoritarian regimes—where freedom of information is restricted and electoral processes lack integrity—appear to foster the conditions conducive to conspiratorial thinking, which suggests conspiracy beliefs reflect a rational response to power disparities and limited transparency. Two key hypotheses guide this investigation. First, I argue that freedom of information is negatively associated with conspiracy theory beliefs. In open societies, freedom of information supports a "marketplace of ideas," allowing citizens to access diverse, credible sources of information, diminishing the appeal of conspiracy theories. Conversely, authoritarian settings, where information flows tend to be circumscribed, provide fertile ground for conspiracy theories to thrive. This study builds on existing theoretical work which suggests transparency, media freedom, and public accountability are essential in limiting conspiratorial thinking by exposing false claims to scrutiny and providing credible alternatives. Second, I expect electoral integrity negatively correlates with conspiracy theory beliefs. Where electoral processes are perceived as fair, publics are more inclined to trust political elites, reducing the appeal of conspiratorial explanations for key political events. In contrast, manipulated elections contribute to political cynicism and foster distrust in governmental institutions, elevating the explanatory appeal of conspiracy beliefs. To test these hypotheses, I adopt a multi-methods approach, combining correlation analysis, propensity score matching, generalized propensity score matching, and a vignette experiment. This approach aims to collectively disentangle the complex relationship between political structures and conspiracy beliefs, ameliorating the challenge of isolating the causal factors under inquiry. Preliminary findings hint at a negative association between both freedom of information and electoral quality and the prevalence of conspiracy beliefs, across societies. This research advances our understanding of the structural determinants of conspiracy beliefs, which in turn contains important policy implications. Specifically, enhancing information freedom and electoral integrity may serve as effective strategies to mitigate the spread of harmful conspiracy theories, ultimately cultivating a more discerning, engaged and informed public sphere.