From personalistic to programmatic: How population size alters the character of political competition

In recent years, the relationship between population size and political competition has garnered increasing scholarly interest. While most studies focus on the relationship between size and electoral competitiveness, little attention has been given to whether – and how – population size affects the very nature of political conflict. This study addresses this gap by investigating how population size influences the characteristics of competition during elections. By employing an innovative comparative research design, it examines the effect of size on political competition in eight municipalities across Italy, The Netherlands, Norway, and Switzerland. Based on a mixed-method approach, including ethnographic fieldwork during local election campaigns and 117 semi-structured interviews, the findings reveal that population size fundamentally alters the character of political competition. Smaller communities lack programmatic competition, relying instead on personalistic lines of conflict, while larger communities exhibit structured, programmatic competition characterized by distinct issue agendas and positional differences. These patterns are explained by the social dynamics within the polity, which depending on the population size of the polity, either enable or constrain the development of programmatic conflict. By highlighting how population size influences the character of competition, and thereby the nature of electoral alternatives, this study offers significant insights into the broader debate on population size and democracy.