Democracy Attitudes in Europe in the grip of the Far-right and Crises: The Role of Conspiracy Theories in the Political Inclinations of Germany's Political Center

Over the past decade, amid increased global crises and uncertainties, the resilience of democracy—fundamental to European governance—has faced significant challenges due to democratic backsliding and the ascent of right-wing political ideologies. Given that societal endorsement of democratic principles serves as a mitigating factor against democratic erosion (Claassen, 2020), scholarly attention has increasingly turned towards understanding the nature, dynamics, and particularly the interplay with the burgeoning right-wing ideologies and right-wing populism, which have gained prominence in recent years. Additionally, the role of conspiracy theories, whose influence on individuals' political attitudes, beliefs, and behaviors has been extensively deliberated, particularly amidst the COVID-19 pandemic, has emerged as a subject of inquiry regarding its impact on social support for democracy. Germany has emerged as a focal point for such investigations, given the increase in votes for the far-right AfD party and the "remigration" scandal that came to light in early 2024, prompting widespread public outcry. Concurrently, large-scale demonstrations ensued, affirming commitment to democratic values while denouncing right-wing extremism. Despite ongoing scholarly debate, recent studies indicate a correlation between belief in conspiracy theories and extremist political leanings, radical attitudes, and collective resentment towards specific individuals or groups (Papaioannou et al., 2023; Sutton and Douglas, 2020; Vegetti and Littvay, 2022). This study, leveraging data from the Mitte Studie—a longitudinal survey aimed at discerning the political inclinations of Germany's political center—aims to explore the relationship between the recent surge in right-wing extremist ideologies in Germany and the propensity towards political violence, a salient manifestation of these ideologies in societal dynamics, vis-à-vis belief in conspiracy theories and attitudes towards democracy. Firstly, we will contextualize the relationship between democracy and conspiracy theories within the evolving political landscape of Germany post-2015 migration wave and amidst escalating global crises and uncertainties. Subsequently, we will articulate the primary hypotheses, conduct data analysis, and draw conclusions by delineating the tenets of far-right ideologies and emergent right-wing populism in Germany and broader Europe, while examining their significance in times of crisis and uncertainty. Lastly, we will deliberate on how the nexus between belief in conspiracy theories, democracy, and ideological orientations operates as different modes of navigating crises and uncertainties.