Parallel Realities: How Government Failure Provides a Breeding Ground for Conspiracy Thinking. The case of the Dutch Childcare Scandal

Abstract: This research investigates the relationship between government failure and the rise of conspiracy thinking, using the Dutch Childcare Benefits Scandal as a case study. Government actions, or lack thereof, can erode public trust, leading segments of society to seek alternative explanations for impactful events (Imhoff & Bruder, 2014). By analyzing the interplay between government failure and the proliferation of conspiratorial rhetoric, this study aims to understand how government failure creates breeding ground for conspiracy thinking. Research Questions: 1. How do instances of government failure contribute to the development and spread of conspiracy theories? 2. What role do social media platforms and traditional media play in amplifying these narratives? 3. How can network and content analysis reveal the dynamics of conspiracy thinking within public discourse? Methodology: This study employs a combination of content analysis and network analysis to examine public reactions to government failures. Letters to the editor from Dutch newspapers and social media posts on X (formerly Twitter) from 2018 to 2024 will be analyzed to assess the prevalence of conspiracy thinking related to the Dutch Childcare Benefits Scandal. Letters to the editor provide insight into what people find important enough to write about and what editors find important enough to publish (Perrin & Vaisey, 2008; Uscinski & Parent, 2014). Expected Contributions: This research will provide insights into the mechanisms through which government failures can foster conspiracy thinking. The findings will help policymakers, scholars, and digital platform regulators to better understand the impact of governmental actions on conspiracy thinking and the spread of misinformation. It will also highlight strategies to mitigate the adverse effects of conspiracy thinking on democratic institutions. References Imhoff, R., & Bruder, M. (2014). Speaking (Un–)Truth to Power: Conspiracy Mentality as A Generalised Political Attitude. European Journal of Personality, 28(1), 25-43. https://doi.org/10.1002/per.1930 Perrin, A. J., & Vaisey, S. (2008). Parallel Public Spheres: Distance and Discourse in Letters to the Editor. American Journal of Sociology, 114(3), 781-810. https://doi.org/10.1086/590647 Uscinski, J. E., & Parent, J. M. (2014). American conspiracy theories. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199351800.001.0001852