Between expectations and perceptions – How communication with immigrant-origin associates shapes views on immigrant representation and support for democratic institutions among natives

In recent years, the representation of citizens of immigrant origin has become increasingly relevant in both societal and academic discussions across European democracies. However, only a limited number of studies focus on the attitudes and support for immigrant representation within the native majority population. Using a traditional theoretical framework — specifically, the role of social interactions in the development of political attitudes and behavior — I examine how interpersonal communication with individuals of immigrant origin influences the majority population's views on immigrant representation. I propose that such interactions help natives recognize the social marginalization experienced by immigrant-origin groups, which leads to three key outcomes: (1) an increasing support for immigrant representation, (2) a decreasing perception that immigrant representation is currently adequate, and (3) a widening gap between expectations and perceptions of immigrant representation. This increasing mismatch between expectations and perceptions of the political system might have severe consequences for political support, especially trust in political institutions. To investigate these dynamics, I use a factorial vignette experiment that simulates interpersonal communication. It manipulates key factors such as the frequency of discussion, the intimacy of relationships, and the politically relevant information conveyed by others. The survey experimental evidence from Germany provides insights into how interpersonal communication influences natives’ views on immigrant representation and explores the potential consequences of growing mismatches between expectations and perceptions of the political system for trust in representative institutions.