Left-Right Political Orientations and the Belief in Conspiracy Theories. A Comparative Analysis of Austria, France, Italy, and Switzerland

Explaining belief in conspiracy theories has become an important topic of political science research because these narratives undermine basic components of liberal democracy, such as trust in institutions, evidence-based policy making, and acceptance of election results. Among the actual political factors that characterize those who believe in conspiracy theories, political ideology, typically defined as a left-right position, has been the most studied. However, research on its relationship to conspiracism has produced conflicting results: One group of authors has found a linear relationship that emphasizes the predominance of right-wing attitudes among conspiracy theory believers, while those on the left side of the political spectrum are less likely to believe in these narratives, leading to the "asymmetry hypothesis". Researchers following the "extremity hypothesis," on the other hand, emphasize that both extreme left and extreme right positions are systematically related to belief in conspiracy theories, resulting in a curvilinear (u-shaped) relationship. Finally, a third group of researchers has found no systematic relationship between left-right ideology and belief in conspiracy theories. Contrary to the generalizable (but contradictory) conclusions of both the "asymmetry hypothesis" and the "extremity hypothesis," this last group of scholars emphasizes, among other things, the political context as an intervening factor that calls into question any generalizability. The planned paper aims to contribute to this ongoing debate by examining the contemporary impact of left-right ideology on the belief in conspiracy theories in four countries: Austria, France, Italy, and Switzerland. Based on new survey data, the paper examines how the political context, e.g. the composition of the national government, might explain different patterns of left-right orientations and conspiracism. In contrast to many existing studies, it will be possible to examine the impact of ideology on both several specific conspiracy theories and the more general concept of conspiracy mentality. Specific conspiracy theories, at least those that are politically relevant, are often associated with either left-wing (e.g., the hidden agenda of multinational corporations) or right-wing politics (e.g., the Great Replacement), making it difficult to clearly separate belief in them from the political attitudes that underlie their narratives. A comparison of results based on specific conspiracy theories and conspiracy mentality in four countries should therefore clarify the relationship between left-right orientations and conspiracism.