Regional disparities, social marginalization, and democratic support

Public support for liberal democracy is essential to the stability and resilience of democratic systems. While existing research emphasizes the role of individual-level factors, such as education, political ideology, and social trust, as well as macro-level factors like democratic history and economic performance, regional disparities in democratic support within countries remain underexplored. Current theoretical frameworks, including institutional learning theories, often overlook the complex interplay between regional contexts and individual characteristics. This study addresses this gap by examining how regional and individual-level factors combine to shape citizens’ support for liberal democracy. Grounded in social capital theory, the study hypothesizes that opportunities for civic participation, particularly through local associations and organizations, enhance democratic support by fostering both bonding and bridging social trust. Conversely, regional disadvantages, such as economic hardship, limited public services, and demographic shifts, are expected to undermine democratic support, especially when compounded by individual experiences of social marginalization and exclusion. Social trust is further hypothesized to mediate these effects, either amplifying or mitigating the influence of regional (dis)advantages on democratic attitudes. The analysis draws on original data from a geo-coded survey conducted in Germany, integrating individual-level measures of social trust, perceptions of marginalization, and democratic attitudes with regional data on economic performance, access to public services, and societal resources. Multilevel modeling is employed to investigate how regional contexts condition the relationship between individual-level factors and democratic support. This study contributes to the literature by providing a nuanced understanding of the interaction between regional and individual determinants of democratic support. The findings offer valuable insights for policymakers aiming to combat democratic backsliding and design targeted interventions to strengthen democracy, particularly in regions facing economic and social disadvantages.