Elections, security and stability – international community responses in the Horn of Africa

In conflict-prone and affected areas, elections are often viewed as potentially leading to further escalation of violence. In peacebuilding literature, elections are sometimes seen as sequential to peace process, to take place after the end of a transition period, when certain stability has been achieved and peace agreement has been implemented. In democratization literature, the sequencing approach argues that the rule of law and institutions should be established before electoral processes can start. Particularly in conflict situations, the quality of elections is considered important and holding flawed elections without a proper institutional framework is assumed to risk escalating conflict. Other analysts have argued that the sequencing approach ignores the role of local actors in pushing for elections and a simple reality that elections do take place in conflict or transition situations. Also, in the situations of long-term instability or transition, elections can be seen as a prospect of change and therefore possibly also reduce tensions. The current paper will explore this ‘nexus’ between elections, security and stability in the responses and engagement of international partners, including donors and other international partners, regional organisations, and neighboring countries. Drawing both on peacebuilding and democratisation literature, the paper first looks at how and to which extent the literature acknowledges this nexus. Next, it looks at the responses of the international community on the decisions around elections, including on postponing elections and conflict escalation and de-escalation around elections. The case studies chosen are where the likelihood of conflict is considered high and international partners’ overall involvement is high. The paper will look at the international partners responses around 1) Expected elections in South Sudan in 2024 (delayed to December 2026); 2) Local elections in Puntland in 2023 and 2024; 3) Presidential elections of Somaliland in 2022, delayed and held in November 2024; 4) Federal electoral process in Somalia from 2021-2022. The paper will explore how this nexus was acknowledged and navigated by the international actors. Whether and how were the narratives of security and stability deployed in responding to decisions around elections, including on electoral delays and on how the delays impacted the overall stability of the situation, and what was the outcome of the international partners responses to the electoral processes.