Escalating Backlashes in Europe's Green Transition: Lessons from Estonia

European regions historically reliant on fossil-intensive energy production are undergoing transformative changes as part of the Just Transition Mechanism, aiming to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. However, this transition is complex and uneven, with regional disparities significantly affecting the pace and success of green initiatives. In Estonia, the Ida-Virumaa region—one of Europe’s most carbon-intensive areas—faces unique challenges as it navigates this shift. The region’s embedded intersectionality, shaped by ethnic diversity, socioeconomic conditions, and a rise in populist resistance, complicates the green transition process. Here, we investigate how green transition in a socially interconnected region, Ida-Virumaa, evokes fear of change among communities whose historical ties to the landscape transcend shared ethno-racial identities. These connections are deeply tied to the materiality of the landscape—through the mining industry and fossil resources—which sustain livelihoods, fortify social capital and networks, and provide enduring links to the Soviet past and current identity formations. The uncertainties surrounding the green transition reveal deep-seated social backlash, shaped by regional ethno-racial and linguistic differences, and strong regional social capital and networks. Far-right populist political parties amplify and exploit this discontent, strategically aligning their agendas with the concerns of white, male mine workers by invoking traditional values and exemplifying petro-masculinities. This populist approach seeks to attract support from those fearing the erosion of social capital and network-based opportunities. Together, these forces create a dynamic that we refer to as “escalating backlashes,” characterized by the escalation of social backlashes embedded in regional identity to populist backlashes.