Distorted Perceptions, Radical Choices: How Misperceived Public Opinion on Gender Equality Fuels Right-Wing Populist Voting

Prior research has demonstrated links between opposition to gender equality and support for right-wing populist (RWP) parties. This relationship is often explained through conservative-traditionalist values among RWP voters. However, little attention has been given to how misperceptions of public opinion on gender equality issues shape these dynamics. This study examines the extent to which antifeminist attitudes—understood as a targeted rejection of gender equality achievements and feminist movements—increase the likelihood of voting for an RWP party, focusing on the 'Alternative für Deutschland' (AfD) in Germany. Moving beyond direct attitudinal effects, it investigates how misperceived public opinion on gender equality moderates this relationship. It is hypothesized that both overestimating and underestimating public support for gender equality can reinforce the link between antifeminist attitudes and RWP voting, as antifeminist attitudes are either intensified through perceived opposition or validated trough perceived dominance. Using representative German survey data from 2025, this study employs regression and moderation analyses to test the assumptions. The findings contribute to a deeper understanding of how distorted perceptions of public opinion on gender issues shape political preferences and strengthen support for RWP parties.