The Mobilizing Power of Ambiguity: How Antifeminism and Perceptions of Gender Opinion Climates Shape Right-Wing Populist Support

Prior research links opposition to gender equality with support for right-wing populist (RWP) parties, typically attributing this association to conservative-traditionalist values or anti-gender backlash. Yet little is known about how perceptions of the broader opinion climate shape this relationship. Moving beyond direct attitudinal effects and drawing on Spiral of Silence theory, this study examines whether perceiving the public opinion climate on gender equality as feminist or antifeminist conditions the impact of antifeminist attitudes on voting for the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD). Using representative German survey data from 2025, logistic regression and moderation analyses reveal an unexpected pattern: the relationship between antifeminist attitudes and AfD voting is strongest when the opinion climate is perceived as balanced, and weaker when it is perceived as either strongly feminist or strongly antifeminist. This inverted U-shaped moderation challenges the assumption that perceived majority views always embolden, and minority views always inhibit political expression. Additional analyses show that much of the moderation effect operates through populist attitudes, situating “gender protest” within a broader authoritarian-populist worldview. The study advances both Spiral of Silence and anti-gender backlash research by suggesting that perceived opinion dominance can demobilize when it erodes the protest appeal central to outsider-party support, and by highlighting the mobilizing potential of perceived ambiguity in public opinion.