Cousins in Politics: Is Current French Politics Adopting an Italian Pattern of Democracy?

French politics, a country typically not included in the Southern European cluster and a political system once regarded as a model of political stability and sound governance, has faced an unprecedented political crisis in 2024. This crisis was marked by a snap election lost by the incumbent centre-majority government of President Emmanuel Macron, followed by an enduring gridlock, difficulties in forming a cabinet, which was finally overthrown after only three months of activity by the first vote of no confidence in more than sixty years. These developments have prompted many, both within and outside France, to suggest that French politics has adopted an Italian pattern of democracy. The paper critically examines this issue in five sections. Section 1 begins by considering the contrasting patterns of democratic functioning as discussed in the comparative politics literature. Section 2 then addresses the ‘Italianisation’ thesis and its core assumptions. Section 3 scrutinises the empirical evidence that can be used to test this claim. To do so, it focuses, with particular emphasis on the 2022–2025 period, on empirical data and background information relating to electoral change, party polarisation, party system and parliamentary fragmentation, as well as cabinet formation and resignation. Section 4 discusses the pattern emerging from the collection of these elements and compares it with the Italian case. It highlights clear signs of alteration in the former French pattern over the short term. Section 5 finally compares these findings, challenging the assumption that the recent shift in French politics aligns with the Italian model of democratic competition, particularly given that the Italian model itself has changed significantly in recent years. It suggests that equating the two situations is flawed and examines the extent to which grounded similarities and differences can be identified, as well as what expectations can be made for the foreseeable future.