Unaffected Polarization? Populism and Affective Polarization in Comparative Perspective

With both affective polarization and populism on the rise in several countries, many have proposed a link between the two phenomena. Yet, research offers little direct evidence on whether more populist citizens are more polarized. This paper aims to fill this gap by using CSES data from 37 elections in 31 countries to provide a comparative account of the relationship between populism and affective polarization at the individual level. We show that more populist individuals are not more polarized than less populist ones. Instead, we identify a curvilinear relationship wherein both citizens who strongly endorse or reject populist ideas exhibit high levels of polarization, with substantial variations across countries. Furthermore, populism is associated with a general disdain for all political parties rather than just rival parties. These findings challenge the prevailing assumption that populism is asymmetrically associated with affective polarization and suggest that ideological extremism, rather than populism, may be associated with the upsurge in affective polarization observed in some Western democracies.