Coordinating Acts: Assessing the Coherence of EU Green Deal Policies

Within the European Green Deal Framework, the Member States (MS) have set climate and biodiversity targets for the next decades which crosscut various sectors, from biodiversity, land use, energy, and forestry to the bioeconomy. Because policies develop incrementally, goals within one sector may not always align seamlessly with goals in adjacent sectors. For instance, with respect to bioeconomy goals, projected increases in the use of and demand for biomass for bioenergy and bio-based materials could conflict with the biodiversity and conservation goals. The “greening” of the European Union (EU) is driving a growing tension between green policies emphasizing the economy (e.g., the bioeconomy) and those emphasizing the environment. As this gradual green transition progresses, forests are becoming increasingly significant in both economic and environmental policies, driven by the need to solve simultaneously pressing issues such as biodiversity loss, climate adaptation and mitigation. Such tensions highlight an increasing potential for goal conflicts and incoherence across policy settings. From the European Green Deal-related policies set, we focus specifically on the forest, bioeconomy, and biodiversity policies. These policies show a wide range of interactions using forests and forest biomass resources that could lead to different trade-offs. At the EU, the Bioeconomy Strategy is considered a priority for achieving the Sustainable Development Goals, the objectives of the Paris Agreement, and the New European Green Deal. The bioeconomy aims to reduce dependence on fossil-based materials and promote the use of bio-based resources, to produce food, materials, and energy. At the same time, the EU Biodiversity Strategy for 2030 is geared toward securing and restoring ecosystems, mainly through increasing protected areas and their interconnectivity. While the Bioeconomy Strategy implies a more intense use of forest-based natural resources, the Biodiversity Strategy aims at expanding protected areas and in key areas of high-conservation value abstaining from using them. According to a large body of literature as well as decision-making bodies of the EU, policies should aim to be integrated and coherent to promote synergies and reduce trade-offs when implemented and to achieve their goals. Using qualitative document and text analysis, we assess the coherence of the policy design of the EU Forest Strategy, EU Bioeconomy Strategy, and the EU Biodiversity Strategy by coding their policy goals, targets, and instruments. Then, by comparing the policy design of the selected policies we will identify potential conflicts that could occur during their implementation and thus hinder their success. Going beyond a simple binary strong-weak coherence dichotomy, we contribute to the literature on policymaking and policy coherence through improved policy design. Furthermore, we provide new insights from the policy design perspective into the current debate of increasing cross-sectoral tensions for forest biomass resources use, biodiversity conservation and climate goals in the EU.