First-Order Dilemmas in Second-Order Elections: Social Democrats and Immigration Policies in 2024 European Parliament Elections

Immigration policies have been a decisive factor in European Union politics in recent decades, and the 2024 European Parliament elections were no exception. Against the backdrop of rising far-right parties, the long-debated Migration and Asylum Pact and the continued increase of saliency of immigration, social democrats once again faced their strategic dilemma on the issue, which extends to their diverging voter bases, ideological values, electoral pressures and political decline. While there is growing academic attention to this dilemma, a significant gap exists in understanding the European Union-level approaches of social democratic parties to immigration policy-making and position-taking. This research addresses this by examining the 2024 election manifestos of social democratic parties on the EU level and analysing their immigration-related policies and positions, especially as far-right parties and anti-immigrant sentiments are increasingly popular and influential in European politics and the European Union. The aim is to investigate the nature and the extent of divergence and convergence between their immigration policies, the aspects they emphasise or downplay, and the factors driving these variations. Employing a mixed-method approach, quantitative and qualitative content analyses are utilised to identify the trends, positions and framing of their policies. This study contributes to our understanding of how social democrats, as crucial actors in the European Union consensus, position themselves on highly salient and politically divisive issues while highlighting implications for European Union politics and its ongoing and potentially existential challenges.