First-Order Dilemmas in Second-Order Elections: Social Democrats and Immigration Policies in 2024 European Parliament Elections

Immigration has become a central issue in European politics, and the 2024 European Parliament (EP) elections were no exception. Amid the rise of the far right and the increasing salience of immigration, the social democratic dilemma was once again highlighted. Confronted with diverging voter bases, ideological tensions, and electoral decline, these parties must navigate competing pressures in defining their stance on immigration. While existing research addresses national-level dynamics, little attention has been paid to how social democrats approach immigration at the EU level. This article addresses that gap by analysing the 2024 EP election manifestos of social democratic parties, focusing on their immigration positions, emphases, framing, and the degree of convergence or divergence with Europarty lines. Using a qualitative content analysis, the study examines how ideological orientations influence their outlook. Finally, the findings are situated within broader EU-level developments in immigration policy, political contestation, and party coherence.