How Second-Order Beliefs Influence Climate Politics in Europe

This article delves into the concept of second-order beliefs: Individuals' perceptions of others' opinions. The theoretical framework posits that political actors strategically leverage second-order beliefs to promote their political agendas. By shaping second-order beliefs, political actors can sway opinions and foster support for their initiatives. This theory has general applicability, but in this paper, I test how this plays out around climate policies in Western Europe. Some of the world's most influential climate and ecological scientists use strong language to warn that we are heading towards a global climate catastrophe (Ripple et al. 2024). They point to the resistance from powerful political and economic forces that benefit from the current fossil-fuel-driven development as the primary reason for the lack of climate action. On other hand, governments in Western Europe believe they are making a significant effort to reduce emissions. People generally agree that climate action is necessary, but majority backing among voters for specific measures can be hard to find. The first part of this paper will map and compare support for various specific measures aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions in Western Europe. The primary objective of this study is to explore the second-order beliefs about these measures: How do individuals perceive their fellow citizens' support or opposition to climate change mitigation strategies? If the prevailing belief is that most predominantly endorse certain climate measures, implementation of such policies might be easier. Conversely, if they perceive significant opposition, implementation of climate policies might be more difficult. This paper will explore the individual-level dynamics involved in this process and consider the implications for climate policy. To address these questions, I am surveying approximately 12,000 citizens across six European countries: Norway, Sweden, Germany, the UK, the Netherlands, and France. The study assesses second-order beliefs regarding eight specific measures aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions. I analyze the survey data to explore variations in second-order beliefs across different ideological groups and national contexts, with a particular emphasis on the social liberalism-conservatism dimension that shapes political attitudes in Western Europe (Ford and Jennings 2020). My goal is to better understand how second-order beliefs are shaped. The role second-order beliefs play in politics has been overlooked by political scientists, and I argue that this is important to study and theorize. The theoretical ideas laid out in this paper are most certainly relevant to other collective action issues, but perhaps also beyond this. Ultimately, the findings aim to inform policymakers, advocacy groups, and political scientists about the complexities of public opinion and highlight the importance of second-order beliefs for political outcomes.