Green Activism in the Era of Re-Democratization: Does a Centre-Left Government in Power Make a Difference?

Recent research on air pollution activism in Poland has documented evidence that despite the “green conservatism” bordering on “environmental nativism” of the Law and Justice government (2015-2023), political elites reacted positively to air pollution activism. This was explained in terms of the concurrence of (i) a particular (health) framing of air pollution, (ii) the devolution of power and responsibility for managing air quality to regional government, (iii) the circulation of new information and data,and (iv) the emergence of new actors and activist strategies. The emerging air pollution activism has met a lot of opposition from the historically powerful and heavily unionised Polish coal industry. Despite that, a number of clean air policies has been developed, on both local, regional and national level, including local coal bans or restrictions, regional clean air laws or national tax cuts and incentive programmes, which are i.a. subsidising coal furnaces replacements and thermal insulation of housing. This led the Law and Justice government to adopt further policies which went beyond air pollution policy and sped up energy transition in Poland. The most coal-heavy country in the EU started to quickly move away from coal, both in electricity production and home heating. Share of coal in electricity mix dropped from 87% in 2015 to 63% in 2023. Despite all this progress, the reforms seem not affect the position of coal mining industry. Although extraction of coal fell significantly during that time period, by roughly 45%, the coal mining has remained almost intact, employing the same number of people - ca. 75 000. In this paper, we examine what led to such a turn of events. Since the 2023 election of Civic Platform (Platforma Obywatelska) and the commitment of the Tusk government to restoring liberal democracy and returning to a ‘European’ and liberal path, we examine whether the pace of progressive environmental reform has increased, and the capacity of activists to influence political elites has been augmented. Focusing on climate activist campaigns, we interrogate a core assumption within the scholarship on green activism, namely that progressive environmental agendas are most likely to occur under green, alternative and liberal (GAL) governments, whilst traditional, authoritarian and nationalist (TAN) governments are commonly associated with climate change scepticism. We also use the case of Poland during the PíS and PO governments to consider the extent to which environmental issues can still be said to exacerbate left-right polarization. We employ a qualitative approach combining results from a scoping focus group and a series of interviews conducted in 2025 with 30 policymakers and activists using the snowballing technique.