The Impact of Russia’s War Against Ukraine on Europeans’ Trust in NATO

The large-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 has revitalized NATO’s role in Europe. The Alliance has affirmed its commitment to Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity by providing military support. However, it remains unclear whether this security threat has increased public support for NATO among Europeans. Existing literature on foreign policy attitudes and strategic threats has examined NATO perceptions in various geostrategic contexts. This paper revisits these findings in light of the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine. Adopting a two-pronged analytical strategy, the paper first conducts a longitudinal analysis of NATO attitudes using Pew Global Attitudes Surveys from 2013—just before Russia’s first invasion of Ukraine—through 2024. Second, it employs regression analysis of an original survey on NATO attitudes conducted in December 2022 across five EU and NATO member states (France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, and Spain). The analysis tests whether concern about the war’s effects is positively associated with trust in NATO and examines divergent results by country, accounting for beliefs about responsibility for the war (Russia vs. NATO/US/West) and other relevant socioeconomic factors. This research contributes to understanding European public attitudes toward NATO amidst significant security threats.