NIMBY Effect on Nuclear Power Support in Taiwan: A Field Experiment Amid Energy and Geopolitical Challenges

This study examines the NIMBY (Not-In-My-Back-Yard) effect on public support for nuclear power in Taiwan, where energy policy is tightly linked with ongoing geopolitical tensions and environmental objectives. The debate over nuclear power has persisted for decades, with the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) maintaining a firm stance against nuclear energy, advocating for LNG and renewable energy to achieve carbon neutrality. However, recent power outages in Northern Taiwan have heightened concerns about the reliability of the electricity supply, particularly in light of potential Chinese blockades that could disrupt LNG imports and threaten energy security. This research expands the study of public attitudes toward nuclear power by refining the classification of opinions beyond the traditional binary of NIMBY (Not In My Back Yard) and YIMBY (Yes In My Back Yard) by introducing the "NOPEs" (Not On Planet Earth) dimension into the discussion. This classification captures the nuances of public opinion and explores the distinct characteristics and motivations of each group. Leveraging survey experiments, heatmap survey questions with georeference techniques, and hurdle models, we address two core research questions: (1) How can public attitudes toward nuclear power facilities be more comprehensively classified into NOPEs, NIMBYs, and YIMBYs? (2) What incentives can the public sector employ to address the "NOPE" and "NIMBY" syndromes? Methodologically, the use of GPS-based survey techniques offers a novel approach to examining the spatial dimensions of public opinion, enabling precise analyses of localised effects on policy preferences and the dynamics of support for nuclear power infrastructure. Our findings reveal stark divides in public opinion. Supporters of the pro-independence DPP are disproportionately represented among "NOPEs," reflecting the party’s long-standing opposition to nuclear power despite growing energy security challenges. In contrast, individuals directly affected by recent power outages in Northern Taiwan are more likely to support nuclear power and express willingness to accept the construction of nuclear plants in their vicinity, highlighting the tangible impact of energy shortages on public attitudes. When exploring incentives to address the "NIMBY" syndrome, cash benefits emerge as the only effective policy tool for significantly reversing NIMBY attitudes. However, their influence remains limited among "NOPEs," whose opposition to nuclear power is ideologically entrenched and resistant to financial or other practical incentives. These findings underscore the importance of distinguishing between ideological and situational opposition when crafting policy solutions. By integrating advanced spatial and experimental methods, this study offers a robust framework for understanding and addressing public attitudes toward nuclear energy. The theoretical contributions extend to debates on public opinion and energy policy, while the methodological advancements in GPS-based surveys provide actionable insights for studying contentious infrastructure projects in Taiwan and globally. These results also hold broader relevance for nations like Australia and those in Europe, where nuclear power continues to be a contentious yet vital subject in energy debates during times of crisis.