Economic Manifestations of the Post-Industrial Cleavage: Parties’ Group Appeals and Social Policy Prioritization, 1970-2020.

In recent decades, scholars have observed shifts in relationships between social groups and political parties in advanced democracies, often framing these changes as a “cultural” realignment along a new cleavage. However, evidence of new cleavage formation is mixed, and its impact on welfare state politics is understudied. I argue that where realignment exists, it extends beyond cultural spheres to economic-distributive issues, reflecting both the interests and moral perspectives of social groups. The formation of this cleavage also depends on broader socio-economic transformations like de-industrialization and educational massification. This study examines how political parties change which groups they appeal to and the social policies they endorse, as well as the relationship between these shifts, in light of socio-economic transformations. By identifying the groups parties appeal to and focusing on the prioritization of different kinds of social policies (e.g., social investment vs. consumption), the analysis moves beyond previous cleavages and conflicts that focus only on levels of social spending. The study uses computational text analysis of party manifestos from 22 advanced democracies (1970-2020) to identify social group appeals and social policy prioritization. These analyses are used to test hypotheses about the roles of key players in the new cleavage formation: social-democratic, green, and radical right parties, while also offering an inductive description of the changing political landscape.