Process Tracing in Democratic Studies

Democratization and democratic backsliding are not isolated events but rather iterative and complex processes influenced by dynamic interactions among actors, institutions, and contextual factors. Process tracing offers a powerful methodological approach to unravel these intricacies by providing a detailed, evidence-based analysis of causal pathways. This approach allows researchers to examine how specific actions and decisions by key actors trigger particular trajectories—either towards democratic consolidation or backsliding. While democratization and democratic backsliding may be study as macro events taking place over years, we know that individual actors can play decisive roles in the outcomes of these processes. For example, the actions of U.S. Vice President Mike Pence in 2021 or of Adolfo Suarez in 1981 in Spain illustrate how specific decisions can contain backsliding by reinforcing institutional norms during a critical juncture. However, these decisions do not occur in a vacuum nor are one-offs, but rather the result of a process of actions and interactions. Process tracing can provide the conceptual language and the right tools to follow the causal pathways which include these decisions to better understand how they came about and why some of them are successful while others are not. The paper advocates for the broader application of process tracing in democratization studies, emphasizing its value in capturing the interplay of agency, context, and institutional dynamics over time. By leveraging this method, scholars can develop richer insights into the mechanisms underpinning democratic resilience or decline.