Dual Tracks of Climate–Development Policy: Political Economy of Policy Coherence in Mongolia

Achieving policy coherence (PC) between climate and development goals is a core ambition of the Paris Agreement and the 2030 Agenda. Yet, in practice, many countries struggle to align economic growth with climate commitments, particularly resource-dependent developing states. This paper examines the factors shaping PC in Mongolia, a climate-vulnerable democracy whose economy relies heavily on coal exports to China and electricity imports from Russia. Drawing on insights from a systematic literature review (SLR) and 28 semi-structured interviews with government officials, local actors, donors, and civil society, the study applies a four-factor framework — institutional, political, economic/external, and ideational — to analyse Mongolia’s dual-track policymaking, in which climate-aligned and climate-contradicting objectives coexist within the same frameworks. The findings confirm globally recognised barriers, such as weak coordination mechanisms and vertical integration gaps, but also show how these operate differently in contexts marked by high political turnover, donor dependence, and structural economic reliance on fossil fuels. Additional dynamics — including misaligned donor project cycles, geopolitical constraints, and the framing of climate change as an “add-on” — further entrench incoherence. Rather than treating incoherence solely as governance failure, the paper argues that it can also function as an adaptive strategy in structurally constrained contexts. The study challenges universalist assumptions in PC frameworks and highlights the need for more political economy–sensitive and context-specific approaches to climate–development governance.