Trust, Conspiracy Theory Beliefs, and Attitudes Toward Immigrants: A Comparative Study Across the United States, Germany, and Australia

Immigration continues to generate intense debate in many democracies, shaped by the degree of social trust in a community and the prevalence of conspiratorial thinking. Drawing on data from the Comparative Conspiracy Research Survey (CCRS)—a cross-national dataset including respondents from the United States (n = 966), Germany (n = 980), and Australia (n = 973)—this study examines how conspiracy theory beliefs and social trust interact to shape perceptions of immigrants and support for restrictive immigration policies. Grounded in Realistic Group Conflict Theory and the Uncertainty/Control perspective, we explore how perceived group threats and a need for control influence attitudes and policy preferences toward immigrants. We find that conspiracy theory beliefs consistently predict negative perceptions of immigrants. However, their influence on support for stricter immigration policies varies across contexts, depending on levels of social trust. In the United States, where trust is relatively lower, conspiracy beliefs directly amplify negative attitudes. In contrast, in Germany and Australia, where trust is higher, conspiracy beliefs have a weaker impact on attitudes but a stronger effect on demands for government action, reflecting a collective response to perceived threats. This study highlights the dual role of social trust as both a buffer against hostile attitudes and an amplifier of collective policy demands when conspiracy beliefs frame immigration as a societal risk. By providing comparative insights into how these dynamics unfold across different political and cultural settings, we contribute to debates on immigration, trust, and conspiracy theories, emphasizing the importance of fostering trust to mitigate the polarizing effects of conspiracy narratives in democratic societies.