Democracy in the Trenches: How War Involvement Fuels Autocratic Resilience and Democratic Erosion

Existential security is crucial for both the transition to and the survival of democracy. Proponents of this argument have claimed that only where existential security can be taken for granted, citizens develop and maintain pro-democratic norms – a crucial foundation of democracy. Empirical tests of this argument have, however, extensively relied on economic indicators as proxies for existential security. This paper builds on this literature by exploring a critical but understudied factor: the role of war in shaping democratization and democratic stability. Given that war has perhaps the biggest potential for eroding existential security, I argue that a history of war should decrease the likelihood of democratic transition and increase the risk of democratic collapse, even more so than economic insecurity. Using survival analysis and new data from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) and Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem), this study demonstrates that longer periods of uninterrupted peace indeed help to ease democratization and to protect democracy from breakdown. These findings are robust to multiple alternative specifications, and reveal the profound, enduring impact of war on democratic trajectories. Furthermore, the results challenge claims that authoritarian leaders are disproportionately penalized for losing wars and suggest that they may even have strategic incentives to initiate wars.