The Influence of Threat Perception on Political Attitudes: Measuring the Acceptance of Autocracy in Germany

This paper examines how the perception of global crises as threats shapes public attitudes toward democracy in Germany, drawing on insights from Integrated Threat Theory (ITT). Specifically, we analyze citizens’ fears related to war, climate change, and migration. Using data from the study "People in Germany: International," we explore how perceived societal challenges, and associated threats influence authoritarian attitudes over time. To measure autocracy acceptance, we introduce a novel metric that captures the rejection of democratic norms, such as open debate, judiciary and parliamentary oversight, and the preference for authoritarian leadership. Our findings reveal that approximately 30% of the German population demonstrates some degree of autocracy acceptance, with significant variation across political affiliations—from 14.8% among Green Party voters to 50.1% among AfD (a far-right party) supporters. Notably, this acceptance spans various social demographics and is not confined to traditionally authoritarian personality traits, right-wing ideology, or lower education levels. Consistent with ITT, perceived threats to access basic necessities—housing, energy, employment, and food—exacerbated by fears of war, climate change, and migration, are strongly correlated with support for autocracy. Additionally, individuals who perceive political leaders as incompetent exhibit a heightened inclination toward authoritarian preferences. Finally, we present results from vignette experiments that assess whether experimentally manipulated perceptions of military conflicts, such as the Russian war in Ukraine or the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, causally impact autocracy acceptance. Our findings highlight the importance of perceived threats related to crisis events in shaping political attitudes and provide critical insights into the erosion of belief in democracy's superiority in addressing global crises.