Electoral Paradox: Analyzing the Discrepancy Between European Public Opinion In European Value Survey and the Rise of Right-Wing Populism in France (2008-2024)

This study dissects the discrepancy between the public opinion that has reported positive attitudes among French citizens concerning immigration, employment priority, welfare spending, and cultural diversity in the European Value Survey 2018, contrasting the electoral gains made by the right-wing party National Rally that has endorsed Laïcité and promotion of the “Pan French Nationalism”. This interpretational gap reasons for a reassessment of the factors that have been excluded in the European value survey, necessitating a reanalysis of electoral behavior through sociological and political analysis. This paper employs a mixed-method approach, with quantitative analysis of European value survey data with qualitative insights in the spectrum of socio-political trends, examining whether the electoral gains of the National Rally are primarily driven by “anti-immigration sentiments” in French society or a broader discontent with the political institutions and socio-cultural positions of the governments. Using the survey questions of the European Value Survey 2008 and 2017 will develop a measurable indicator, electoral data published by the French Election Commission for spatial mapping of the National Rally voting patterns, immigration data to capture the shift in immigrants percentage through the years and comparing with the National Rally voting patterns while applying thematic themes that include “theory of protest voting” and “institutional distrust theory”. Lastly, this paper will aim to provide a new perspective of analyzing predisposition in French citizens' electoral behavior in contemporary French politics, capturing the far-reaching implications on governance.