Bringing the Economy Back In: Reappraising Drivers of EU Attachment After the Invasion of Ukraine Using Observational and Experimental Evidence

This paper examines how economic, cultural, and security perceptions shape individual attachment to the European Union (EU) following the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Using a large-scale, nationally representative survey from 16 EU member states fielded five weeks after the invasion, it investigates whether the heightened geopolitical threat environment alters established predictors of EU attachment. The analysis combines observational data with a vignette experiment that tests how positive and negative frames about the economic, cultural, and security implications of EU membership affect individual attachment. Results show that, despite the prominence of security concerns, expectations of domestic economic benefits remain the strongest predictors of attachment to the EU. Individuals who perceive membership as fostering economic growth and job creation are more attached to the Union than those focused on cultural or security issues. In the experiment, positive economic framing significantly increases EU attachment relative to a control group, whereas cultural or security framings, whether positive or negative, have no statistically significant effect. These findings suggest that, in the context of a major geopolitical crisis, functional expectations tied to economic well-being may supersede cultural or security considerations in shaping supranational attachment.