Staying Close or Going Far. How Likelihood of Return and Perceptions of Temporality Shape Destination Country Preferences Among Ukrainian Refugees

Ukrainian refugees are given temporal protection in Europe, and European governments are emphasising their need to return to Ukraine after the war. However, among the refugees themselves, far from all see their stay abroad as temporary. In this paper we discuss how the refugees’ own perceptions of temporality shape destination country preferences. Drawing on narrative analysis of qualitative interviews among Ukrainian refugees in Poland, Germany, and Norway, we show how the refugees link willingness to invest to manage in the labour market to their perceived likelihood of returning. Refugees with a strong ambition to return to Ukraine express preferences for remaining in neighbouring areas, where geographic proximity enables transnational economic and familial activity, and where cultural and linguistic proximity enables labour market participation without learning the language or obtaining additional qualification. Refugees who move further away – to Norway or Germany, often do so knowing that there will be high investment costs to entering the labour market and for becoming economically independent. They are however willing to make these investments because they expect the returns to be higher in the long run, because they are seeking long term solutions and have given up on returns. The paper draws on qualitative interviews with 47 refugees from Ukraine, conducted between May 2022 and October 2024.