Rethinking Trade Preference Formation: Economic Security, Democratic Norms, and European Integration

This study provides novel empirical evidence on the drivers of public support for economic globalization and integration, advancing beyond the traditional debate between economic self-interest and normative factors in international political economy. Through an survey experiment in Germany and Italy, we examine how information about free trade benefits and China's economic engagement shapes citizens' preferences toward trade policy and European integration. Our research design uniquely leverages the EU's dual nature as both an economic and political project to illuminate the complex preference formation mechanisms in the evolving landscape of postwar embedded liberalism. Our findings reveal three crucial insights: First, economic security concerns at both individual and national levels significantly influence attitudes toward international trade and European integration, with striking differences between Germany's robust economy and Italy's challenging economic environment. In Germany, economic strength reinforces existing self-interest-based preferences, while in Italy, economic vulnerabilities make disadvantaged populations more responsive to new information. Second, we demonstrate that education plays a decisive role in preference formation, with higher educational attainment correlating strongly with stable pre-existing attitudes. Third, we uncover compelling evidence that normative considerations, particularly regarding China, shape trade and EU preferences independently of economic self-interest. This effect is especially pronounced among female respondents, highlighting the critical importance of incorporating gender perspectives into trade policy analysis. These findings make significant theoretical and empirical contributions to our understanding of how citizens form preferences about international economic cooperation in an increasingly complex global environment. By integrating economic and normative factors, our research provides crucial insights for policymakers seeking to build sustainable public support for international economic integration.