The Impact of Election-Day Air Quality on Turnout: Evidence from Poland

Climate change's pervasive influence reshapes decision-making, behaviours, and societies, prompting a closer examination of its impact on civic engagement. One critical aspect of climate change is air pollution in cities and countries around the globe. Existing research consistently highlighted the effect of air quality on human behaviour in various social situations, such as day-to-day mobility (Chen et al., 2021), leisure activities (Choi et al., 2019) or criminality (Herrnstadt et al., 2021). Yet, to our knowledge, there is no research investigating the impact of air quality on turnout behaviour as one of the social activities that require outdoor mobility. Considering this, the paper proposes a first test of a relationship between air pollution as an essential aspect of climate change and election day turnout. Analysing data from the European Environment Agency's European Air Quality Portal, we assess the role of election-day air quality on parliamentary election turnout in Polish cities from 2013 to 2023. Poland is suitable for this type of research setting for several reasons. First, it stands out as one of the most air-polluted countries in the EU, presenting an opportunity to study long-standing air pollution impacts. Also, the considerable air quality differences among Polish cities provide diverse datasets, offering a range of air quality scenarios over time. Finally, addressing the impact of air quality on political participation in a highly affected country like Poland enhances confidence in drawing conclusions applicable to less polluted nations. Overall, this study offers a compelling framework to explore how environmental factors, notably air pollution, intertwine with democratic processes. Understanding this relationship gains relevance within the broader context of climate change's multifaceted impact on societal dynamics. Identifying and comprehending the impact of air pollution on voter participation not only informs environmental policies but also bolsters democratic resilience in the face of evolving climatic challenges.