The European Green Deal, Drivers of Turbulence and Autonomy Effects

The implementation of the European Green Deal (EGD) happens in a multi-level context, where degrees of turbulence exist at all levels and where legislation at one level can create new challenges at another (i.e., turbulence of scale; Ansell and Trondal, 2018). Therefore, we assume that turbulence can also affect autonomy, which Fossum et al. (2023) define as an actor’s ability or will to stake out its own course and the means it has available for doing so. A burgeoning literature shows that turbulence can take different forms. We take this literature further when distinguishing between juridification and politicisation as important drivers of turbulence. Expecting these drivers to also be important in forming a state’s autonomy, we explore the relationship between turbulence and autonomy. In a multi-level governance system as the EU, jurisdiction-driven turbulence starts with the fact that the EU seeks to develop a common body of legislation and a set of policy instruments for the purpose of making the green transition happen. It is primarily about the scope and speed of legislation that a state must incorporate and implement, which is also important for a state’s wriggle-room. Politicisation-driven turbulence in relation to the EU's green transition happens because the EGD or included elements are politicised, thereby leading to conflict, as we have seen for example, with the farmers’ protests against EU climate measures. This is also related to autonomy as the more internally riven a country is, the more it will struggle to form a coherent will. Hence, we ask: In what ways can juridification and politicisation induced by the EGD impose turbulence on states? To what extent is this related to autonomy concerns in those states? Leiren and Farstad (2024) show that the EGD has created turbulence even in non-member states. Hence, we draw on insights from Norway, a non-EU-member state, which cooperates closely with the EU in the European Economic Area and in the climate area.