Coalition, Discursive Shift, and Defeat: The Digital Politics of Refugees in Türkiye’s 2023 Presidential Elections

This study investigates the role of social media in shaping refugee discourse during Türkiye’s 2023 presidential elections. It examines how opposition parties leveraged anti-refugee rhetoric to challenge President Erdoğan and the AKP after losing the first round, and why this strategy ultimately failed to secure victory in the decisive second round. Erdoğan’s policies on Syrian refugees have long been a divisive issue in Turkish society. After their loss in the first round, the opposition parties formed a coalition (or lent their support) and campaigned for a single candidate, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, in the second round. This coalition included the Zafer Party, a newly formed anti-refugee populist party in Türkiye. Despite the intensified anti-refugee rhetoric of the opposition candidate and the expanded coalition, the opposition ultimately lost the second round, dashing hopes for political change in Türkiye. Using trace data from X, this study analyzes the evolution of refugee discourse during the two-stage electoral process (May 14 and 28) in 2023. It addresses three central research questions: (1) What refugee policies and discourse did the opposition actors emphasize in each round? (2) How did the AKP counter these narratives? (3) How did these strategies affect bottom-up communication networks? The first two research questions are addressed through discourse analysis of statements by political parties, influential users, and media accounts on X, identifying their strategies and their change between the rounds. The third research question is explored using social network analysis (SNA), which maps communication networks across both rounds to compare their evolution, identify influential users, and analyze shifts in engagement patterns, exploring how changes in rhetoric affected online communication. Approximately one million tweets were collected from X for this study. Preliminary findings indicate that the salience of refugee politics increased approximately ninefold in the two weeks leading up to the second round. However, the opposition’s intensified anti-refugee rhetoric in the second round alienated some users, failed to reshape the online communication networks, and struggled to attract new audiences. Meanwhile, the AKP’s consistent narrative on refugee policies worked to its advantage. In summary, this research demonstrates that opportunistic coalitions with anti-refugee populist parties and sudden shifts in refugee policies can harm mainstream parties. Rather than fostering broader support, such strategies risk alienating users on social media, exacerbating polarization instead of building discursive power or reshaping communication networks. This study provides valuable insights into the strategic use of social media in polarized elections, the dynamics of online anti-refugee discourse, and the intersection of migration and electoral politics, focusing on Türkiye—a complex, culturally diverse, and underexplored case in the context of online refugee politics.