Exploring Incentives and Migration Aspirations Among Syrian Refugees in Turkey

As Syrian civil war accelerated in 2015, one of the most pressing questions was whether migrants see Turkey as a stepping stone to settle in European countries. EU-funded social assistance for refugees in Turkey, known as FRIT was based on the assumption that cash aid would help refugees to integrate in Turkey and hence would curb their aspirations to move onwards. Likewise, the Turkish public has been particularly interested in whether Syrian refugees will return to their country in the near future, when or if the country stabilizes. This paper compares different policy interventions, such as cash assistance, employment, legal status and return incentives, in relation to their impact on migration aspirations through a survey experiment. This study examines how various incentives influence the migration aspirations of Syrian refugees in a secondary migration context: staying in Turkey, moving to a third country, or returning to Syria. In order to better understand the drivers of secondary migration decisions, which are largely dependent on the political and economic situation and change over time, we collected two rounds of experimental data in 2021 during the COVID lockdwon and repeated in 2025 only few months after the fall of the Assad regime. Both surveys used a convenience sample from online advertisements through Facebook and Instagram in Arabic. In the between-group experimental design, participants are presented with hypothetical scenarios featuring a Syrian refugee under five conditions: no additional support (control), receiving ESSN financial aid, access to vocational training, an invitation to apply for Turkish citizenship, and a financial incentive to return to Syria. Our findings reveal how these interventions shape aspirations need to be nuanced taking into consideration the interplay between economic security, social integration, and return motivations. The results provide critical insights into policy approaches for managing refugee populations and their migration aspirations.